Associate Director, Forecasting

Job Summary:

The Associate Director of Forecasting will be responsible for developing and leveraging Cristcot’s forecasting capabilities, including forecast methodologies, processes, technologies, and reporting to guide decision making and strategic planning across the organization. The Associate Director will collaborate with cross-functional partners to rigorously estimate and effectively communicate the commercial opportunity for Cristcot’s launch assets into ulcerative colitis and follow-on lifecycle opportunities. To be successful, the Associate Director needs to have an entrepreneurial mindset, a willingness to execute all aspects of product forecasting, adeptness at modeling scenarios, and to create a clear narrative that explains the rationale for and elements of the forecasts created.

Primary Relationships:

• Within Cristcot, the Associate Director of Forecasting will collaborate closely with cross functional teams, including Data Science, Market Research, Marketing, Commercial Operations, etc.
• Outside Cristcot, the Associate Director of Forecasting will engage with external agency partners, consultants, and advisors.

Primary Job Responsibilities:

The Associate Director of Forecasting is an important role that will guide strategic and planning decisions for Cristcot’s launch assets and lifecycle opportunities by using strategic thinking, data analytics and insights, forecasting knowledge and experience, and pharmaceutical acumen. The Associate Director will leverage their forecasting and modeling skills to develop and evolve rigorous, transparent, and data-driven forecasts that instill trust and confidence for effectively managing the business.

The activities of the Associate Director of Forecasting will include, but are not limited to:

• Develop and maintain rigorous forecasts to support the business decision making and planning for Cristcot’s launch assets and follow-on lifecycle opportunities.

Harness the forecasting capability as a strategic tool for identifying opportunities and risks; to inform impactful business decision making; and to guide strategic planning for the organization across short-term, mid-term, and long-term time horizons.

• Develop and evolve advanced forecast models by using the latest tools, techniques, and approaches that keep the forecasting at Cristcot on the leading edge of excellence.

Collaborate with cross-functional stakeholders (i.e., marketing, finance, insights & analytics, operations) to understand business needs, assess insights and assumptions, and to translate inputs into data-driven forecasting solutions.

• Integrate secondary data analytics results and primary market research insights to inform forecast assumptions, as well as opportunity and risk assessments.
• Communicate forecasting assumptions, outputs, and insights to stakeholders in a clear, transparent, and actionable manner to inform business decisions.
• Develop and maintain documentation for forecasting models, processes, and procedures.
• Stay current with the latest innovations in forecasting approaches, methodologies, and platforms to keep Cristcot at the leading-edge of forecasting advancements.

Collaborate with insights and analytics teams to track launch performance across key performance indicators (KPIs) and diagnostic metrics to understand and explain business performance and the forecast implications.

• Partner with Data Science and Market Research to develop brand performance monitoring reports that track brand performance against forecast expectations.

Identify and implement forecasting best practices by monitoring the external data science and forecasting landscape for emerging capabilities, processes, and best practices. Engage with cross-functional partners (Data Science, Market Research, Marketing, Market Access, and Finance) to prepare, report, present, and discuss forecasting results. Collaborate with forecasting and analytics agency partners to identify analogs, benchmarks, and market landscape developments to triangulate forecasts and to pressure test assumptions.

Skills and Qualifications:

Advanced degree preferred (master’s or Ph.D.), but no less than bachelor’s degree in data science, business, psychology, statistics, economics, mathematics, life sciences, or a related field that requires forecasting related skills. 5+ years of experience in pharmaceutical/biotech commercial demand forecasting either on the client side or consulting/research agency side. 3+ years of experience in the pharmaceutical or life sciences industry preferred. Knowledge of and experience with pharmaceutical data sets (e.g., sales data, pharmacy, payer, promotional & marketing data, claims data, longitudinal patient data, competitive intelligence). Knowledge of and experience with secondary data sources used by the pharmaceutical industry (e.g., IQVIA, Komodo, Symphony Health, MMIT, FIA, epidemiology). Proven skills in developing product forecasts, market assessments, and competitive intelligence analyses. Attention to detail and focus on accuracy. Demonstrated success in leading and collaborating with forecasting agencies that service the pharmaceutical and/or biotech industries. Strong technical skills (i.e., forecast modeling, scenario simulations, range estimation) combined with broad knowledge of the pharmaceutical industry. Experience with the commercialization of pharmaceutical products and launch experiences a plus. Strong quantitative and analytical skills, with the ability to translate analyses and forecasts into actionable insights. Excellent communication skills, project management skills, and storytelling skills to translate forecasts, data analytics, and insights into actionable business recommendations. Great team player that actively listens to stakeholders, enjoys collaborating with colleagues, and values different opinions and perspectives. Agility and flexibility to operate in a dynamic, fast-paced environment. Proficient in using MS Office tools (i.e., Excel, PowerPoint, Word). Ability to travel up to 10%.